US to Lift 2020 Sanctions on Turkey, Pave Way for F-35 Sale

U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking on Tuesday during a NATO summit visit to Turkey, announced that Washington would lift sanctions imposed on Ankara in 2020 over Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system. The move, coupled with Trump’s expressed willingness to consider selling F-35 stealth fighter jets to Turkey, marks a potential dramatic reset in one of the most contentious defense relationships within NATO. The sanctions, levied under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), targeted Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries and its top officials, freezing assets and restricting dealings with U.S. companies. Additionally, Turkey was expelled from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, where it had been a production partner manufacturing hundreds of components, and its planned purchase of 100 F-35A jets was blocked. The dual penalty caused billions of dollars in lost defense contracts for Turkish firms and deprived the F-35 supply chain of a critical industrial base. Trump’s promise to ‘take the sanctions off’ breaks with years of U.S. policy that tied any normalization to the complete removal of the S-400 from Turkey. Congressional legislation, specifically the National Defense Authorization Act, explicitly prohibits the transfer of F-35s as long as Turkey possesses the Russian system. Reflecting the legal complexity, administration officials and media reports have pointed to a potential workaround: transferring the S-400 batteries to a third country—possibly a U.S.-controlled location such as Libya or a military base outside Turkey—which would then open the door for a presidential waiver to re-admit Turkey into the F-35 program. Trump did not outline a timeline or legal pathway but said his secretaries of State and Treasury were ‘working on the issue.’ His upbeat tone about the F-35 sale, calling it ‘the best plane by far,’ signals a high-level commitment to overcoming congressional opposition. For the defense industry, the pivot has immediate stakes. Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for the F-35, and its suppliers could see a revival of a multi-billion-dollar export deal. Turkey had originally planned to acquire 100 F-35A conventional takeoff and landing variants, a sale valued at more than $9 billion at the time of the ejection. With Turkey’s GDP and defense budget having grown since, a new deal could be even larger. The resumption of industrial participation would also stabilize parts of the F-35 supply chain that have sought alternatives since 2020. The geopolitical calculus is equally significant. Turkey has used the sanctions narrative to justify the acceleration of its indigenous TF-X Kaan stealth fighter program, but industry analysts note that full operational capability for the Kaan is still years away and would not match the F-35’s sensor fusion and network-centric capabilities. By dangling the F-35, the Trump administration aims to pull Turkey closer to NATO’s integrated deterrence posture at a time when Ankara has also pursued a balanced relationship with Moscow. The move could also impact ongoing discussions over Sweden’s NATO accession and regional security in the Eastern Mediterranean. Pressure from Congress, however, remains the largest obstacle. Key lawmakers have repeatedly opposed any F-35 transfer until the S-400 is verifiably removed, citing concerns that the Russian radar system could collect data on the F-35’s stealth profile if operated in proximity. Even if the S-400 is relocated, the legislative bar requires guarantees that Turkey will not re-activate the capability. Trump’s announcement, therefore, is best understood as the opening of a high-stakes negotiation that will unfold over months, with intense lobbying from defense contractors, debates in the Senate, and potential horse-trading on other foreign policy fronts.