US Tells 35 Nations to Pick Sides in AI Race—Space Mineral Supply at Stake

For space and defense planners, AI is now the new orbital high ground. The U.S. ultimatum to 35 signatories forces a binary choice between Washington's Pax Silica and Beijing's World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, directly affecting the rare-earth minerals and advanced chips used in satellite buses, on-orbit autonomy, and missile warning systems. If fence-sitting countries like Kazakhstan are cut off, the space supply chain for next-generation constellations could fragment along geopolitical lines.

On August 14, 2026, Reuters reported that the U.S. State Department is preparing a draft letter to the 35 signatories of the U.S. "AI Opportunity Statement," demanding they choose between Washington's Pax Silica initiative and Beijing's rival World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAIC). The letter, reviewed by Reuters and corroborated by a U.S. official, warns that countries cannot remain in both frameworks and that membership in Pax Silica is "not merely a membership subscription, but a commitment." The blunt line — "To be part of everything is to be part of nothing" — signals the end of a dual-alignment era in AI geopolitics and formalizes a binary bloc structure that until now had been informal.

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allies Japan, Australia, and South Korea, as well as Kazakhstan, a key potential source of critical minerals.

The Pax Silica initiative, launched last year, aims to secure supply chains for AI models, semiconductors, and critical minerals amid the intensifying technology rivalry between Washington and Beijing. About two dozen countries have joined, including close U.S. allies Japan, Australia, and South Korea, as well as Kazakhstan, a key potential source of critical minerals. The fact that Kazakhstan joined both Pax Silica and China's coalition set off alarm bells in Washington, making it the only country known to have done so. The State Department's draft letter is addressed to the 35 signatories of the June 2026 AI Opportunity Statement, which includes Pax Silica members and other countries expressing alignment with U.S. AI cooperation. The move is designed to starve China of resources in the race for the most sophisticated AI, which U.S. officials see as critical for future military and economic dominance.

For space and defense stakeholders, the implications are immediate and structural. Advanced AI increasingly underpins autonomous satellite operations, orbital command and control, missile warning, and space domain awareness. Semiconductors and rare-earth minerals are shared bottlenecks for both AI data centers and space systems: Kazakhstan's critical minerals, for instance, are relevant to spacecraft components, propulsion, and electronics. An ultimatum that forces partners to pick sides could fragment or consolidate the space-related mineral and chip supply chain along geopolitical lines. Countries that opt for Beijing's open-weight AI model may find their access to U.S.-aligned advanced chips, model weights, and critical mineral partnerships curtailed, potentially affecting their ability to build next-generation satellite constellations and autonomous defense capabilities.