Starship Test Looms as SpaceX Market Cap Slips 34% to $1.75T

For the space and defense sector, SpaceX's stock price gyrations are more than a financial headline—they are a barometer of confidence in the company's ability to execute on its audacious starship development. The 34% decline from a $2.6 trillion peak to $1.75 trillion, coupled with the stock dipping below its $135 IPO price for the first time, raises the stakes for Thursday's 13th Starship test flight. Success could restore faith in rapid reusability, while failure may deepen the correction and ripple through the ecosystem of suppliers, competitors, and government partners.

SpaceX shares slid below their $135 initial public offering price for the first time on Wednesday, July 15, 2026, capping a dramatic unwinding of post-IPO euphoria that had briefly pushed the company's market capitalization past $2.6 trillion. The stock dipped as low as $132.15, a 2.9% intraday drop, before recovering to close at $135.27. This move marks a fourth consecutive losing session and leaves the iconic reusable rocket maker's shares roughly 34% off their all-time high, erasing much of the 50% surge seen during the first three days of trading after its record $86 billion debut last month.

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The 34% decline from a $2.6 trillion peak to $1.75 trillion, coupled with the stock dipping below its $135 IPO price for the first time, raises the stakes for Thursday's 13th Starship test flight.

The decline arrives just ahead of SpaceX's 13th Starship test flight, slated for Thursday, July 16, a mission that will once again test the company's ambitions for deep-space exploration and rapid reusability. The juxtaposition of a sliding stock price and a high-stakes technical flight encapsulates the volatile intersection of aerospace engineering reality and financial market narratives. Analysts point to a confluence of factors: heavy profit-taking by early investors, a reality check on the astronomical valuation that briefly topped $2.6 trillion, and the unwinding of excessively bullish derivative positions built up around one of the most anticipated IPOs in history.

Daniela Hathorn of Capital.com noted that the selloff reflects a natural reassessment of a valuation that had become detached from near-term fundamentals, while Steve Sosnick of Interactive Brokers observed that the lack of new positive catalysts since the listing has left the stock vulnerable. The small free float—only about 4% of total shares are publicly traded—has amplified volatility, making each move more dramatic. This structural quirk, combined with the intense retail and institutional attention, means the stock often overshoots in both directions.

SpaceX's listing on the Nasdaq and its rapid inclusion into the Nasdaq-100 index under revised eligibility rules were supposed to provide a floor of passive, index-tracking demand. However, the effect was fleeting: shares slumped below their first trade price of $150 a day after joining the index, and have now fallen through the IPO price itself. This breakdown of technical support levels signals a loss of momentum that could persist unless the company delivers a fresh catalyst, such as a flawless Starship flight, new government contracts, or Starlink revenue milestones.